产业结构变迁背景下的人口红利与经济增长

The Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth in the Context of the Transition of Industrial Structure

人口红利变动和产业结构变迁是影响经济增长的重要因素。本文在测量产业结构合理化和高级化的基础上,运用中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的平衡面板数据实证检验了人口红利、产业结构变迁和经济增长之间的关系。研究结果发现,在经济增长率较低时,总抚养比下降会促进经济的快速发展。在经济增长率达到相对较高水平时,总抚养比上升直至人口红利消失并不会抑制经济增长。同时研究还发现产业结构合理化和高级化对经济增长的影响不仅取决于自身,而且还与经济增长速度有一定关系。在上述研究基础上,本文提出相应对策建议来提高人口红利对经济增长的贡献。

Changes in the demographic dividend and industrial structure changing are important factors which affect economic growth. Based on the measurement of rationalization and upgrade of industrial structure, this paper examines the impacts of demographic dividend and industrial structure changing on economic growth by using an econometric model with thirty regions＇ panel data in China. The results show that, at a lower rate of economic growth, the decline of the total de- pendency ration will promote economic development. When economic growth rate reaches a relatively high level, the total dependency ration rises until the demographic dividend disappears, which does not inhibit economic growth. The study also finds that the impact of industrial structure rationalization and advancement on economic growth depends not only on its own, but also on the speed of economic growth. In the end, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to increase the contributions of demographic dividend on economic growth.