物质资本、人力资本对中国经济增长影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on Impact of Physical Capital and Human Capital on Economic Growth in China

通过VAR模型的协整检验、Granger因果、脉冲响应分析以及方差分解,研究分析了物质资本、人力资本对中国经济增长的关系,结果表明:人力资本存量和物质资本存量对经济增长都具有显著的影响;从人力资本角度看,人力资本对经济增长的推动作用具有滞后性,在短期内效果微弱而在长期内效果显著;而从物质资本角度看,物质资本在短期内对经济增长推动作用显著;但在长期内却效果微弱,甚至带来负效应。

Through the cointegration test of VAR model, Granger causality, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper studies the relationship between physical capital, human capital and economic growth in China. The result shows that human capital and physical capital stock have a significant impact on economic growth. From the perspective of human capital, human capital promotes economic growth with a lag in the short term, but in the long term with a re- markable weak effect. From the perspective of physical capital, physical capitals promotes economic growth significantly in the short term, but in the long term, the effect is weak, and even bring negative effect.