中国输入型通货膨胀特征研究:程度、来源及渠道

Characteristics of Imported Inflation in China

在经济转轨与产业升级的历史进程中,通货膨胀一直是焦点问题。本文将中国分别纳入与代表性发达经济体和发展中经济体构成的经济系统,提炼双向通胀溢出特征,认知中国输入型通胀的程度、来源和主要传导渠道。实证结果表明:中国受到来自发达经济体和发展中经济体两个方面的通胀影响,与内源性形成四六开格局;输入型通胀的影响在三个季度到一年的时间段尤为突出;并且来自贸易渠道的影响强于来自外国直接投资的影响。

Inflation is one of the key issues in the processes of economic transi- tion and industrial upgrading in China, while the ratio between imported inflation and endogenous inflation is the foundation of theory and policy. Taking China into integrated economic systems consisted of developed and developing economies, re- spectively, this paper investigates characteristics of imported inflation in China, in- cluding the extent, sources and the main transmission channels. Empirical results indicate that Chinese imported inflation is affected by both developed economies and developing economies, which account for 40% of all extent of inflation. Moreover, the impacts of the imported inflation are particularly prominent during the period of three quarters and one-year time. We also show that the impacts from the channel of international trade are much stronger than those from foreign direct investment. Therefore, we should closely monitor the inflation cycle and monetary policy pat- terns of major trade partners.