国债交易流通速度测算及其宏观经济效应

Government Bond Velocity Calculation and its Macroeconomic Effect

目前,我国国债市场的流动性水平较低,国债交易流通速度对宏观经济影响较小,且滞后期较长,国债的效用还没有得到充分发挥。应建立国债余额常态化管理制度,将国债余额上限设定为略高于国债余额的预测值,在任何时点上均不能超越;坚持期限多样化、发行经常化和利率市场化的"三化"原则,构建合理的国债品种期限结构,丰富国债发行品种,形成均衡、动态的国债发行机制;拓展国债统计口径,通过编报狭义和广义两个口径的国债余额,全面衡量国债交易流通速度的宏观经济效应。

At present, the liquidity of China＇s government bond market is comparatively low： the influence of government bond velocity on macro economy is comparatively small with long lag length： we did not give full play to the role of government bond. We should, first, establish the normalized management system of bond balance - setting the upper limit to be a little higher than the predicted value and never to be exceeded： second, we should adhere to the principles of diversified maturities, routinized issue, and liberalized interest rate to construct the rational bond structure in terms of variety and maturity, enrich the variety of bond and develop the balanced and dynamic issuing system; and third, we should expand the statistical caliber, and comprehensively measure the effect of government bond velocity on macro economy by compiling the narrowly and broadly defined caliber.