不确定条件下我国货币政策工具规则稳健性比较研究

Comparative Study on the Robustness of Monetary Policy Rules under the Uncertain Conditions

本文将不确定性因素引入开放经济下的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、IS曲线、资产价格决定方程、汇率决定方程和国际资本流动行为方程中,比较分析了在不确定性冲击的最坏情况、忽略不确定性存在和介于二者之间的近似状态三种情况下,国际大宗商品价格、国外产出缺口和货币政策规则对国内通货膨胀和产出的冲击状况。结果表明,充分考虑到不确定性的冲击能减轻相关因素对国内通货膨胀和产出的冲击;在稳健性前提下,数量型和价格型货币政策工具规则对治理通货膨胀问题的效果基本相同,对于解决经济增长问题,数量型货币政策规则优于价格型规则。

Against the background of open economy, this article introduces uncertainty factors to the new Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve, the asset price decision equation, the exchange rate determination equation and the equation of international capital flow behavior. Analysis is conducted on the impact of international commodity prices, foreign output gap and monetary policy rules on domestic inflation and output in three scenarios, namely the scenario with worst shock from uncertainties, the scenario with uncertainties totally neglected and the scenario between the two. The results showed that taking the impact of uncertainty into full consideration can reduce the related impact on domestic inflation and output. Under the precondition of robustness, the effect of quantitative monetary policy and price tools on controlling inflation is basically the same, but regarding the economic growth, the quantitative monetary policy tools function better than price tools.