区域房价空间与时间扩散效应的实证研究

Empirical Investigation on the Diffusion of Housing Prices across Space and over Time

为探讨区域房价的空间与时间扩散效应,本文综合运用空间动态面板数据模型和局部线性投影法得到全国范围及东、中、西部地区房价的空间脉冲响应函数,这恰是传统计量模型与脉冲响应函数无法实现的。实证结果表明,在东部地区内,空间扩散效应(持续三个季度)与时间扩散效应(持续六个季度)同时存在,而在中、西部地区只存在时间扩散效应,分别持续五个季度与两个季度。与传统实证结果相比,在考虑了房价区域相关后,体现经济基本面的各变量对房价的影响在时间长度和大小程度上皆变弱。

In order to study regional housing prices diffusion intensity and effect, we use pace -time dynamic： panel data model and local linear projection method to observe the diffusion effect of real estate prices across space and over time in the eastern, middle and western regions. We find in the eastern region, both the spatial diffusion effect （ three quarters） and time diffusion effect （ six quarters ） exist, while in the middle and west,there is only time diffusion effect, respectively, for five quarters and two quarters. Compared with the traditional empirical results, other variables that impacts the housing prices is becoming weaker.