试论日本的核电技术发展--福岛核事故与日本核电发展路径缺陷

The Development of Japanese Nuclear Technology:Fukushima Nuclear Incident and the Defects of Japanese Nuclear Development Path

日本福岛核事故是已有先兆的危机,各种不安全因素日积月累,最终导致了最高级核事故的爆发。从日本核电技术发展历程可见其路径缺陷:美日政府共同制造的"绝对安全"神话促使日本核电事业迅速起步;一味引进存在本质缺陷的美式轻水堆给核电安全埋下隐患;核燃料循环技术自主开发乏善可陈,暴露出日本科技"应用强、基础弱"、"模仿能力强、自主开发弱"的瘸腿特征;基于核电技术军民两用特征,日本发展核电存在"双重动机"。今后日本核电将在"拥核"和"反核"两种力量更加激烈的博弈中艰难前行,但"拥核"仍占主流,右翼势力"拥核武"之心不死。关闭所有核电站的"零核电"不意味着"零风险",还需在处置核电"负遗产"过程中继续与"不安全"因素做斗争。日本核电能否可持续稳步发展,取决于对迄今核电发展战略进行深刻反思并实施真正转型。

The Fukushima Nuclear Incident is a disaster preceded by a sign of crisis, with the various insecure factors accumulating and finally leading to the outbreak of the highest level nuclear incident. The historical development of Japanese nuclear technology has revealed the defects of its development path. Japanese nuclear industry took a quick start based on the ＂absolute security＂ jointly made by Japan and the United States. Japan＇ s over - reliance on American light - water reactors producedsecurity risks, and the little progress of Japanese - developed nuclear technology reflected Japanese characteristic of ＂strong in practical application but weak in basic technology＂ and ＂being good at imitation but weak at creation＂ . In the context of the dual use of nuclear technology both in military and civil terms, Japanese nuclear development also has ＂dual motives＂, and will struggle forward in the midst of increasingly intense gaming between the forces of nuclear supporters and opponents. The Japanese rightists will not stop their attempt of having nuclear weapon, the ＂zero nuclear ＂ by shutting up all the nuclear plants does not mean ＂zero risk＂, and Japan has to deal with the insecure factors in disposing the minus heritage of nuclear industry. Whether the Japanese nuclear industry can develop in a stable and secure way depends on the prospect of Japanese rethinking and transformation of its nuclear energy strategy.