江苏省县域消费水平的空间格局及影响因素分析

The Spatial Pattern and Its Influencing Factors of County Consumption Level in Jiangsu Province

以人均消费品零售额表征区域消费水平,利用探索性数据分析法,探究江苏省1995—2011年来区域消费水平的空间格局与演变,通过分位数回归结果进行解释。得出以下结论:通过全局自相关计算可知,1995—2011年间江苏省区域消费水平存在着显著的空间集聚特性,且呈现出不断波动增强趋势;时间突变点表明,2004年是区域消费水平空间关联的突变点,2004年以前,区域消费水平空间分布较均衡,地区差距较小,而2004年以后,消费水平地区发展不平衡,差距越来越大,空间分异不断扩大;消费水平的空间格局演化表明,1995年来江苏省区域消费水平的集聚分异格局不断增强且趋于稳定,呈现"南高北低"集中连片的分异态势;分位数回归结果详细刻画了不同分位点上消费水平影响因素的作用程度与方向,其中,城乡人均收入、城市化率、人均生产总值及第三产业比重对区域消费水平起到正向的积极作用,固定资产投资额起到负向的抑制作用,而二三产业从业人员、公路里程及人均财政支出对区域消费水平的影响在不同分位点上存在着显著的差异性。

This paper characterizes the consumption level based on the per capita retail sales, by using the method of exploratory data analysis, we explore the spatial pattern and evolution of regional consumption level from 1995 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province. then, explain the pattern evolution through the quantile regression results, the main conclusions are as follows： the calculation of global autocorrelation shows that the regional consumption level presents significant spatial agglomeration and fluctuating increase trend from 1995 to 2011; 2004 year is mutation point of regional consumption level through the mutation of global autocorrelation index, from 1995 to 2004 year, the spatial distribution and the gap of regional consumption level is comparatively balanced and small. However, from 2004 to 2011, the regional consumption level shows unbalanced development and the gap tends to widen, the space differentiation pattern increasingly expands; the spatial pattern evolution of the consumption level shows that the cluster differentiation pattern has been enhancing and stabilizing and presents the continuous ＂north-low and south-high＂ concentrated distribution since 1995; the quantile regression results profoundly delineates how the variables influencing regional consumption level in size effect, direction and degree. Specifically, per capita income, urbanization rate, per capita GDP and the proportion of the tertiary industry play a positive role in regional consumption level, but fixed investments shows inhibited effect, other relative factors, such as the employees of secondary and tertiary industries, highway mileage and per capita financial expenditure have obviously different effects on regional consumption level from 0.1 to 0.9 quantile points; this may be influenced by other factors or the correlation of the selected variables. Finally, according to the results and analysis, several corresponding measures are put forward.