黑龙江省玉米单产预测模型的建立及应用

The Establishment and Application of Prediction Model for Corn Yields in Heilongjiang Province

以黑龙江省1980—2012年玉米单产为研究对象,根据时间序列原理和灰色理论原理分别建立玉米单产预测模型,通过平均相对误差绝对值对这两种预测模型分配权重,进而得到玉米单产的整合模型。利用这三种模型分别对2010-2012年玉米单产量进行预测,并与实际值比较,发现整合模型预测精度最高。应用整合模型对黑龙江省2013-2015年的玉米单产进行了预测。

According to the time series theory and gray model theory, taking the corn yields in recent 33 years in Heilongjiang prov ince as the research objects, through the mean relative percent error of these two kinds of prediction model distribution of weight, the in tegration model of maize yield is obtained. By using three kinds of models to predict single corn yield in 2010 - 2012 and comparing with the actual production of maize single, we find the highest integration of model prediction accuracy and make the integration predic tion of the corn yields of Heilongjiang Province from 2013 to 2015 with the integration model.