皖江城市带区域经济增长与能源消耗的实证研究——基于Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI方法

An Empirical Research on Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of WanJiang City Belt:Based on Tapio Model and LMDI Method

皖江城市带在承接产业转移的过程中,经济发展赢得了新机遇,然而能源需求压力却也随之增大,为了打破经济发展与能源消耗的关联,发展低碳经济,实现区域经济的可持续发展。采用脱钩弹性指数方法建立脱钩评价模型分析皖江城市带1998-2012年经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩状况,结果表明皖江区域目前处于弱脱钩的水平;并基于对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对能源消耗的影响因素进行分解,结果表明产出效应和结构效应对能源消耗的驱动作用较大,而低能源强度起着负的驱动作用。

WanJiang City Belt wins an new opportunity of economic development, when undertaking the industrial transfer, however the pressure of energy consumption increases. To break the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, develop low carbon economy and achieve sustainable economic development, this paper builds decoupling evaluation model and evaluates the decoupling situation of economic development and energy consumption between 1998 and 2012 of WanJiang City Belt, which shows that WanJiang City Belt is in currently weak decoupling level; and it decomposes the factors affecting energy consumption based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index method （LMDI） , which shows that the output effect and structure effect have greater driving effect on energy consumption, only energy intensity have an negative driving effect.