河北省未来耕地养育力研究

On Cultivated Land Supportability in the Future of Hebei Province

文章利用联合国粮农组织的农业生态区域法等方法 ,测算了河北省未来时期作物潜力总产 ,预测了人口数量 ,计算了温饱型、宽裕型、小康型营养水平下 2 0 0 5年和 2 0 2 0年的耕地人口养育量 ,用耕地养育力指数揭示了人口养育潜力 ,并在此基础上分析了各市的区域差异 ,提出了提高耕地养育力。

Many the people and little the earth is chinese fundamental situation. This is a problem that we must face courageously. This paper estimates main crops output and population of Hebei province, and estimates the criterion of different nutrition level, then estimates the cultivated land supportability in different consumpation on the base of these predictions. It divides the provincial districts into surplus areas, marginal areas and overloading areas according to the population supportability index. By the end of 2005,the people in Hebei province will live a comfortable life. Shijiazhuang, Langfang, Xingtai and Baoding are surplus areas, that is to say, they have enormous potentiality, and can help other areas. Tangshan, Cangzhou and Hengshui are marginal areas and they are going to live a comfortable life. But Qinhuangdao and Chengde are overloaded with people. By 2020,the supportability of cultivated land in all districts will have raised. The article finally proposes countermeasures to increase the supportability and to make cultivated land sustainable. This article may be helpful in making policy of the population, agriculture and cereals, and it is significant to coordinate the relation between population, resources and environments in Hebei province and such areas in China.