土地资源质量及可持续利用宏观评价指标与TLEL模式

INDICATORS AND TRENDLINE-EQUALITY LINE MODEL OF MACROSCOPICAL ASSESSMENT FOR QUALITY AND SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION OF LAND RESOURCES

为了对土地资源可持续利用和管理提供定量评价的科学依据 ,选择了城市化水平增长率、耕地面积减少率、人均GDP增长率、人均耕地面积减少率、平均粮食亩产增长率、化肥投入量增长率和农药投入量增长率 7项易于获得数据的参数 ,构置了土地利用集约化系数(Ki)、土地消耗回报系数 (Kr)、土地产出效益系数 (Kp)和土地污染替代性系数 (Kc)等 4项宏观评价指标 ,建立了一种简单的相关分析模式———趋势线 -平衡线 (TLEL)模式 ,并试用这些指标和模式对广东省东部梅州市作了实例评价分析 .结果表明 ,这些指标所反映的规律不仅与该区的实际情况基本相符 ,而且还定量地预示了动态变化趋势并揭示了一些从原始数据中难以发现的问题 .

By using seven parameters such as the growth rates of urbanization, per capita GDP, yield per mou of grain crops, consumption of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and decreasing rate of cultivated land and per capita cultivated land, the authors proposed four indicators: the land utilization intensification coefficient, the land consumption redound coefficient, the land production coefficient and the land contamination coefficient. According to the indicators, a new model-trendline-equality line (TLEL model) is established to evaluate the quality and sustainable utilization of land resources in different areas in each development period, such as in Meizhou, Guangdong Province during the 1990s. The result indicates that the indicators and the TLEL model are appropriate for macroscopical assessment of the actuality and trend forecasting of the land resources utilization.