政府重大投资项目舆情风险预警指标体系研究

Research on Risk Early Warning Index System of Public Opinions on Major Government Projects

针对政府重大投资项目舆情风险多发的问题,在探索项目舆情风险作用机理的基础上,提出涵盖舆情主体、舆情信息、舆情传播、舆情受众等四个维度的项目舆情风险预警指标体系。利用层次分析法对各个指标的权重系数进行测算,通过BP神经网络模型进行仿真实验,以昆明PX项目的舆情数据验证项目舆情风险预警指标体系及其权重设置的可靠性与有效性。

Based on the mechanism of public opinion risk in major government project, a risk early warning index system of public opinions is proposed, which consists of four parts： subject, information, media, audience. The authors estimate the weight of each indicator with AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） , and do simulation experiments with BP Neural Network on Kunming PX Project to verify the reliability and effectiveness of the system and its weights.