基于LEAP的河南省交通运输节能减排潜力分析

Analysis of the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential for transportation in Henan Province based on LEAP

应用LEAP模型建立了河南省交通运输能源与环境模型,采用回归分析和情景分析的方法,从社会经济发展、政府政策引导、交通结构优化和技术创新4个层面上,模拟了6种不同情景下的河南省交通运输在2010—2030年的能源需求和环境排放.结果表明,综合节能情景下的能源需求量和环境排放量最低,到2030年的能源需求量将达到729.98 Mtce,CO2排放量将达到1 446.28 Mt,NOX排放量将达到16.69 Mt,SO2排放量将达到3 604.34 kt,分别比基准情景下降47.64%,50.82%,45.86%和39.96%,该情景下的节能减排潜力最大.

This study simulated the energy demand and environmental emissions for the transportation in Henan Province from 2010 to 2030 by a LEAP model approach. With a special reference to socioe- conomic development, governmental policy, traffic structure and technical innovation, six simulations were made using regression analysis and scenario analysis. The results indicated that the least energy demand and environmental emissions would be achieved under Comprehensive energy-saving scenario. By 2030, energy demand would reach 729.98 Mtce, and emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide would be 1 446.28 Mt, 16.69 Mt, and 3 604.34 kt respectively. Compared to baseline scenario, energy demand, emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide was reduced by 47.64% , 50.82% , 45.86% and 39.96% , respectively. This is also the scenario for the best energy-saving and emission-reduction.