1978—2012年中国烤烟生产区域格局的演变

Evolution pattern of Chinese tobacco production regions from 1978 to 2012

利用地区烤烟生产指数,实证考察了1978—2012年中国烤烟生产的区域格局变动特征.回归结果表明,1978年以来,中国烤烟生产的区域格局发生了深刻变化,7个省区烤烟生产指数稳定上升,3个省区一定上升,4个省区相对平稳,3个省区一定下降,6个省区稳定下降,烤烟生产呈现出由东中部向西部欠发达地区集中的趋势.因素分解的结果表明,烤烟种植面积是导致烤烟生产指数变化的重要因素,稳定烤烟面积是保证烟叶产业持续、稳定、健康发展的关键.

Using the index of flue-cured tobacco production in area, this article studies the change of regional structure of flue-cured tobacco production in China from 1978 to 2012. Regression results il- lustrate that significant changes of flue-cured tobacco production in the regional pattern have taken place in China since 1978. The index of flue-cured tobacco production rose steadily in seven provinces and regions, rose a Vittle in three provinces, kept relatively stable in four provinces and regions, de- creased in three provinces and regions, declined steadily in six provinces and regions. In general, flue-cured tobacco production shows concentrated trend from the eastern and central regions to the un- derdeveloped western regions. Results of factor decomposition show that tobacco planting area is one of the important factors leading to the change of flue-cured tobacco production index. Therefore, stabi- lized land area is the key to guarantee the sustained, stable and healthy development of tobacco indus- try.