中印双边贸易增长因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析

On Factors of Trade Growth between China and India——An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model

中国和印度贸易在双方经济交往中的地位不断提升。本文选取2000-2011年贸易数据,运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对中印双边总体贸易及细分产品贸易分解双边贸易增长因素。结果显示:第一,规模效应始终是促进双边贸易增长的主导因素;第二,中国对印度出口增长的规模效应表现在工业制成品或半成品,初级产品的竞争效应愈加显著;第三,反观印度,对中国出口增长的规模效应则更多是在初级产品,竞争制约效应凸显;工业制成品的竞争促进作用提升。调整贸易结构、适应双方进口需求变化是提升出口产品竞争质量、扩大双边贸易发展规模的重要手段。此外,中印FTA战略应提上日程,积极构建经济一体化合作机制。

Based on 2000 ~ 2011 trade data,this paper decomposes the trade growth factors between China and India by using Constant Market Share model( CMS),the conclusions showed that scale effect is always a major factor.The scale effect of growth in China's export to India manifested that competitive effect is even more significant in the industrial finished or semi- finished products. The scale effect of growth in India's exports to China is in primary products and its effect of restriction of competition is more obvious. Readjusting the trade structure and meeting changes of the import demand are important means to enhance the competitiveness of export products and expand the scale of bilateral trade. In addition,China- India FTA strategy should be put on the agenda,and economic integration mechanism should be actively built.