农户选择退出合作社意愿的影响因素及差异性分析——基于Probit模型和粤、皖两省农户的调查数据

Influencing Factors and Difference Analysis of Rural Households' Willingness to Opt out of the Farmer Cooperative——Based on Probit Model and Survey Data from Guangdong and Anhui Provinces

以粤、皖两省440个样本农户成员调查数据为基础,运用Probit计量经济模型,对农户成员选择退出合作社意愿的影响因素及其差异性进行了实证分析。结果显示:户主特征、家庭特征、生产经营特征、成员对合作社认知度及成员对利益需求满意度等因素对成员选择退出合作社的意愿有着不同程度的影响,不同特征组的成员选择退出合作社意愿的影响因素的差异性显著。研究结果表明:应做好入社成员的会员资格确认工作,防止机会主义行为发生;制定规范的农民合作社章程,为合作创造良好的制度环境;在坚持"公平、公开、公正"原则的基础上与成员签订各项购销合同,建立起可信赖的利润分配增长长效机制;完善合作社组织治理机制,为农民合作构建稳定的组织保障。

This study examines the factors about the willingness to opt out of the farmer cooperative and the differences by using the Probit model and survey data of 440 households from Guangdoug and Anhui Provinces in 2012. The results reveal that the individual characteristics of the rural households＇ heads and the families, the situation of the households＇ production, the members＇ needs for recognition and satisfaction with benefits can influence the households＇ willingness in various degrees. The significant factors of the households＇ willingness are different among households with different characteristics. The conclusion is that, it should be prepared to join a membership confirmation, to prevent opportunistic behavior;the normal farmers cooperative regulations should be instituted to create a good institutional environment;we must adhere to ＂fair, open and just＂ principle signing the purchase and sale contracts and establish a reliable and long-term mechanism for increase of profit distribution; the governance mechanism of cooperative should be improved to build a stable organizational support for farmers.