多源信息约束下的路径选择模型与算法

Route choice model and algorithm under restriction of multi-source traffic information

针对交通诱导管理措施的制定常缺乏理论支持的问题,提出信息约束机理作用下的时变路径选择行为研究方法。从人的知觉角度出发基于模糊聚类算法深入解析了多源交通信息(MSTI)的约束规律,借助VISSIM软件模拟路网环境并构建交通状态模式识别模型模拟信息约束下出行者的心理活动。采用意向(SP)调查法获取驾驶员在路网中的路径选择决策数据,并利用Biogeme软件对行为数据建模。结果表明,当偏好路径拥挤不严重时,信息很难对行为产生约束,出行者更倾向于坚持偏好路径;但随着偏好路径拥挤加剧,在信息影响下路径变更行为渐趋频繁,相应的信息对行为的约束也逐渐增强。研究结论为信息环境下出行者的不完全理性行为研究提供了思路及借鉴,并可为交通管理部门提供决策支持。

To the shortage of theoretical support in the policy-making process of traffic guidance management, the research method of choice behavior with confinement mechanism of traffic information was proposed. From the perspective of human perception, the deep analysis of Multi-Source Traffic Information （MSTI） constraint rule was presented based on fuzzy clustering algorithm, then the road network environment was simulated by VISSIM and the traffic state pattern recognition model was established to simulate the mental activity of traveler under restriction of information. Then by means of Biogeme software, the choice model was constructed based on the behavior survey data, which was obtained in the road network example by using Stated Preference （SP） investigate method. Results show that the sanction of traffic information on travel behavior is very limited and the travelers prefer the preference path when traffic of this preference path is not very heavy, while this sanction enhances gradually and the path change behavior, which is influenced by the information, becomes more frequent when the preference path is more congested. The conclusions provided a new idea and reference for incomplete rational behavior research under the information environment, and also provided decision support for traffic management department.