八师石河子市水资源系统动力学仿真与调控

System dynamics simulation and regulation on water resources in Shihezi District of Xinjiang

如何缓解水资源的供需矛盾,使有限的水资源最大限度地发挥其社会、经济和生态效益,解决水资源和社会经济的协同问题是当今世界所面对的共同问题。采用系统动力学方法,在Vensim PLE软件环境下构建了新疆生产建设兵团第八师石河子市水资源系统动力学模型,确定水技术进步因子(wif)、污水处理率(wr)、万元工业增加值耗水量(pw)和农业亩均毛灌溉定额(iq)为调控参数,进行了动态仿真实验。结果表明,通过提高wif和wr、降低pw和iq等综合调控措施,能够实现水资源和社会经济的可持续发展。

It has become common problems in today＇s world to know how to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, make the limited water resources to maximum exerting its social, eco- nomic and ecological benefits and solve the problem between water resources and social economy. Using system dynamics method, system dynamics model on water resources in Shihezi District was built in the Vensim PLE software environment. With water technology improvement factor（wif）, treatment rate of sewage （wr）, water consumption for every 10 thousand yuan worth of industrial value（pw） and irrigation quotas（iq） as the regulation parameters for simulation, dynamic simulation experiment was carried out. The system simulation results showed that water resources and the social ＆ economic sustainable development can be realized, by im- proving ＂wif＂ and ＂wr＂ , reducing ＂pw＂ and ＂ iq