摘要
应用Kendall秩次相关检验法、重标极差R/S分析法以及两者相结合的分析方法对南平市年平均降雨量变化特性进行研究。结果表明,南平市近50年来年降雨量总体上在均值附近摆动、呈微弱减少趋势,但趋势不明显,相对来说随机性明显,20世纪90年代以后降水的年际波动大,今后几年年降雨量序列存在增加趋势。
The Kendall Relevant Test of Order method, Rescaled Range Analysis （R/S） method and the combinative method of two methods are applied in analyzing variation trend of annual mean precipitation of Nanping City in the upper Minjiang River. The results show that： （a） the annual mean precipitations of Nanping swing in the mean value in last fifty years in general and decrease slightly, but the degressive trend is not obvious and the randomicity or independent characteristic is relatively evident; and （b） the annual fluctuation of precipitation is greater since 1990s, and the variation tendency of annual mean precipitation will be uptrend for upcoming several years.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2014年第7期26-28,共3页
Water Power
基金
福州大学科技发展基金资助项目(2013-XQ-38)
关键词
Kendall法
R/S法
降雨量
变化特性
Kendall method
R/S method
annual mean precipitation
variation tendency
