动力煤期货价格预测模型

Price prediction model of thermal coal futures

兼顾理论探讨与务求实用客观,采用煤炭产业的生产、运输、需求、库存、进出口等指标,创新地建立了动力煤期货价格预测VAR模型,通过统计和计量经济学方法,尽量排除人的主观因素,以使模型更客观地反映市场情况,更准确地预测未来价格,取得了良好的效果,为动力煤期货价格研究提供有力的工具。

The price prediction model is not only a theoretic exploration, but also want to be objective and practical for prediction. Creatively using the VAR model, we have established a price prediction model of thermal coal futures which adopts some statistical indicators of Chinese coal industry production, include transportation, demand, storage, import and export, it also involves several macro economy indexes. Through statistical and econometric methods, we try to exclude subjective factors to make the model more objectively reflect the market situation and more accurately predict the futures price. It have achieved a good result and can be a valuable tool for thermal coal futures price research.