我国新能源汽车发展对道路交通能源转型影响研究

New Energy Vehicles and Impact on Road Transport Energy Transition in China

本文首先通过Bass模型对各类新能源汽车动力技术/车型保有量变化趋势进行预测。在此基础上,采用LEAP模型测算了交通部门能源消费,并利用GREET模型的分析结果分两种情景预测了全生命周期温室气体排放量。研究发现,较混合动力汽车快速发展情景,新能源汽车普及情景下我国道路交通能耗及排放水平总量将显著下降,且能耗及排放峰值都将明显提前,新能源汽车的快速发展将对加速我国交通能源转型及温室气体减排起到关键作用。

This paper applies Bass model to forecast the development of various alternative vehicle-fuel technologies in China,and then uses LEAP and GREET model to investigate the life cycle energy consumption and carbon emissions from transport sector under two scenarios.The conclusions show that under the new energy vehicle fast development scenario,the energy use and emissions peak will be lower than that under the reference scenario,and fast growth of new energy vehicles will have a key role in accelerating China＇s transport energy transition and emission reduction rate.