服务贸易对我国服务业升级的作用研究

The research of China's service trade impacts to the service Industrial upgrading

本文利用我国1978-2012年间的统计数据,从总体和部门两视角定量分析我国服务贸易对服务业升级的影响。结论有:第一,服务贸易对我国服务业发展具有促进作用,相对而言,服务进口要比服务出口对服务业发展的影响大;第二,不同部门的服务进口对服务业升级的影响程度具有差异性,其中,通讯服务等4项进口的影响最大,传统服务贸易的作用不明显;第三,服务业FDI、国内生产总值和货物贸易对服务业升级也有一定的影响;第四,服务贸易主要通过技术溢出、制度创新、资本积累和人力资本积累四种渠道影响了我国服务业的升级。

Used relevant statistical data about service trade and service industry between 1978 to 2012, to analysis the relationship between service trade and service industrial upgrading from the perspective of both the general and sectoral with multivariate regression analysis, and the mechanism that service trade impacts to service industrial upgrading. The paper draw the following these conclusions： First, China＇s service trade has a positive impaction to the service industrial upgrading, and the service exports large impact to service industrial upgrading than service imports; Second, the different departments of service trade has a obvious differences on the extent of the impact of service industrial upgrading ; third, China＇s service industrial FDI, GDP and goods trade also have a certain impact on the upgrading of China＇s service industry; Fourth, service trade affecting the upgrading of China＇s service industry mainly through institutional innovation capital, technology and human capital spillovers. At last, the article concludes with some policy recommendations to carry out China＇s service trade activities.