主动配电网规划中的负荷预测与发电预测

Load and Power Forecasting in Active Distribution Network Planning

负荷预测和发电预测是配电网规划中的关键环节,是变电站、网架规划重要计算依据。考虑主动配电网下新型负荷和分布式电源接入等因素,提出适用于主动配电网的概率型负荷预测和发电预测方法。首先全面分析了主动配电网的负荷分类,提出含友好负荷的整体负荷预测方法;其次构建主动配电网分布式电源装机容量及分布预测模型,考虑分布式电源出力的概率特性,进而提出分布式电源可信出力预测方法;最后以负荷预测和发电预测结果为基础,分析了新型负荷和分布式电源对主动配电网规划的影响。

Load and power forecasting is a key link in the distribution network planning as well as the computing basis of substation and grid planning. Considering the factors such as new-type loads and distributed generation resources, a probabilistic load and power forecasting method which is applicable to active distribution system was proposed. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the load classification in active distribution network, a whole load forecasting method with friendly loads was proposed. Then the forecasting model of capacity and distribution of distributed generation was built, and the forecasting method of distributed generation credible power supply was proposed considering the probability of distributed power. Finally, the effect of new-type loads and distributed generation resources on active distribution network planning was analyzed, based on the load and power forecasting results.