弹载单机无失效条件下可靠性评估方法研究

The Study on Reliability Assessment for Missile-Borne Equipments with Zero-Failure Data

针对某型弹载单机在自然贮存和加速试验过程中出现的无失效情况,采用配分布曲线—最小二乘法进行了可靠性评估方法研究。首先介绍了单机加速因子计算和自然贮存数据处理方法,之后针对上述方法得到的数据,采用3种方法进行失效概率估计、4种方法进行Weibull分布参数估计,最后根据参数估计的结果进行可靠性评估和对比,确定了最优方法。实例分析表明:自然贮存信息的引入可有效提高可靠度评定值。本文介绍的3×4种方法中,失效概率为经典估计时加权最小二乘法取权值(3)较合理;失效概率为Bayes估计时计算结果变化稳定且趋势合理;Bayes估计目标贮存期的可靠度评定结果优于经典估计。

In the natural storage life test and accelerated storage life test of missile-borne equipments,the situation of zero-failure data is always taken,especially in the high reliability and small sampling test.The distribution curve for least-square method by MATLAB is obtained.The Bayes method for the estimation of the failure probability is introduced,and least-square estimations of the distribution parameters are given,and then the reliability estimation of zero-failure data is obtained.The computational results show that the least-square method combined with the Bayes estimations is suitable and feasible for the reliability analysis of missile-borne equipments in the case of zero-failure data.