基于时间敏感需求及随机完工期的承诺交货期决策

Decision of Guaranteed Delivery Time Based on Time-Sensitive Demands and Random makspan

在新的经济形势和高新技术指引下,产品更新换代的速度加快,基于时间的竞争成为供应链竞争的焦点.在制造商为核心的供应链中,产品需求除了与价格有关外,与承诺交货期也有一定关联,且部分客户愿意为快速交货而支付更高价格.当需求与时间及价格具有敏感性且实际完工期服从一定的随机分布时,建立利润最大化及服务水平约束的承诺交货期决策模型,并对模型进行讨论及优化分析.通过算例验证了模型的有效性,通过参数敏感性分析得出的结论是:当客户服务水平达到一定阈值时,最优承诺交货期将发生改变;价格及交货期敏感系数不影响承诺交货期,但影响产品需求及最终利润;最优承诺交货期与单位提早完工成本是反向变动的关系而与单位延迟完工成本是正向变动的关系;随着完工期均值及标准差的不断增大,最优承诺交货期呈上升趋势,利润、市场需求及价格不断下降.

Under the new economic situation and the guidance of high techniques, it acceler- ates the new products replacing the old ones, time-based competition has become the focus of the supply chain. For the manufacturers which play a key role in the supply chain, the product demands are the function of the price and delivery time and some customers are willing to pay higher price for faster delivery. When the demands are sensitive to the price and time and the makspan subjects to certain random distribution, it models the decision of guaranteed delivery time that considering the profit maximization and constraint service level, the model is discussed and analyzed by the methods of optimization. The model is verified through nu- merical examples and some conclusions are displayed as follows by analysis of the parameters sensitivity： When the customer service level reaches a certain threshold, the optimal promised delivery time will change; The price and delivery time sensitivity coefficient does not affect the guaranteed delivery time but affect the product demands and final profits; The optimal promised delivery time has the reverse relationship with the unit cost of early completion per day but has the positive relationship with the unit cost of delay completion per day; With the mean and the standard deviation of the makspan increasing, the optimal promised delivery time is rising, and the profits, market demands and price continues to decrease.