一个新的国际关系归因理论--不确定性的维度及其认知挑战

A New Attribution Theory of IR: Dimensions of Uncertainty and Their Cognitive Challenges

四个内部维度(即能力、意图、利益和决心)以及一个外部维度(即外部环境)对于我们理解他人的行为是必不可少的。不确定性在其中的任一维度内均发挥着作用。作者构建了一种新的行为归因理论,认为不确定性的五个维度不仅能各自独立地给人们的认知造成不同困难,而且它们之间的互动也对人们的认知构成了更加难以应对的挑战。更重要的是,这种认知挑战在冲突情境与合作情境中的表现是有所区别的。缺乏对这些不同的、并且能够互相影响的挑战的认识已然对国际关系的研究造成了一定的困扰。把握好这五个维度,了解人们在理解它们时易于出现的各种偏差,对于理解国家在合作或冲突情境中的行为来说是至关重要的。文章的理论框架还指向一些特定的假说,而这些假说可以通过经验与实验方法加以验证。

Four internal dimensions(capability, intention, interest, and resolve) and one external dimension(the strategic environment, broadly speaking) are indispensable for us to make sense of others' behavior. This article outlines a new theory of behavioral attribution in IR. Specifically, each of the five dimensions independently poses different challenges for our cognition while interaction of the five dimensions poses an even formidable one. More importantly, the cognitive challenges they pose in conflictual situations differ from that in cooperative situations. Lack of appreciation of these different yet interacting challenges has resulted in much confusion in the IR literature. Grasping the five dimensions and the different biases we tend to commit when trying to make sense of them is crucial for understanding other states' behaviors in conflict and cooperation. The theory outlined here also points to specific hypotheses that can be tested both empirically and experimentally. Most critically, our theory has critical implications for avoiding those attribution errors that may ultimately lead to conflict and hinder cooperation between states.