不同能源结构下的中国碳排放浅析

A Simple Analysis of China's Carbon Emissions under Different Energy Structures

在对2013-2030年国内生产总值和能源消费量进行预测的基础上,通过设置基准情景、强优化情景、弱优化情景等三种不同的能源结构情景,对我国未来的二氧化碳排放量进行预测,进而分析能源结构的优化对碳排放的影响,并提出了减少碳排放的政策建议.结果显示,随着我国经济的快速发展,能源消费量不断增长,虽然能耗强度下降,但碳排放量与排放强度仍较高,仅在强优化情景下的能源结构,才可达到2020年中国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40％～45％的目标,中国控制温室气体排放面临巨大压力.

On the basis of the prediction for GDP and energy consumption amount from 2013 to 2030, based on three different kinds of energy consumption circumstances which are benchmark circumstances, strongly optimized circumstances and weakly optimized circumstances, the article forecasts China＇s future carbon dioxide emission amount, then analyzes the influence of energy structural optimization upon carbon emissions and puts forward policy suggestions for carbon emission reduction. The results indicate that, following the rapid growth of China＇s economy, energy consumption amount will continuously increase, although energy consumption strength will reduce, but carbon emission amount and emission strength will still be relatively high, only with the energy structure in strongly optimized circumstances, the goal can be reached that China＇s carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP in 2020 will reduce by 40%-45% compared with those of 2005, China＇s greenhouse gas emission control is faced with great pressure