三峡库区主要森林类型的林分蓄积生长预测

Forest Volume Growth Prediction of Main Forest Types in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

利用林分生长收获模型预测林分生长收获量是森林经营和管理的重要手段。早在200年前欧洲学者就编制了林分产量表，根据林分年龄预测林分产量。20世纪70年代随着计算机的普及，科学家们开始研究林分生长和产量预测模型系统，80年代后趋于成熟。

Based on the optimal model of Richards, Logistic and Korf growth function, the age-volume growth mod- els of main forest types in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area were estimated using nonlinear regression. By comparing the results of model-fitted statistics and accuracy test, the most suitable models for every forest type were determined. It shows that the Richards growth function has a strong adaptability, which is most suitable for Masson pine forest, Chinese fir forest, cypress forest, temperate pine forests, deciduous broad-leaved forest, coniferous broad- leaved mixed forest and mixed coniferous forest; while the Logistic or Richards model is applicable for evergreen broad - leaved forest. All the curves of forest types showed good fitting results. These results can provide references for stand growth prediction and forest management in this region.