北京市某肠道门诊腹泻监测预警控制图的建立

Establishment of early warning control charts based on the syndromic surveillance data of outpatient diarrhea in Beijing

目的:根据北京市某肠道门诊就诊患者的腹泻监测数据,建立预警控制图,为腹泻病防控提供早期预警。方法:收集北京市某三级综合医院肠道门诊2009年(2009-04-01至2009-10-31)和2010年(2010-05-01至2010-11-10)开诊期间就诊患者的病历监测资料,根据移动平均法,计算发病基线,确定概率界值α和μα,利用公式w=珔Xj+μαSj计算预警值,绘制预警控制图。结果:根据疾病的危害性、严重性和可控制等特点,确定概率α为0.01,则μα(单侧)为2,计算各预警值,依次得出了该肠道门诊腹泻病、细菌性痢疾和其他感染性腹泻的预警控制图。结论:该肠道门诊的腹泻预警控制图需要进一步收集基线数据加以评价和不断调整,以得出符合该肠道门诊的最佳预警模型。

Objective：To establish the control charts for early warning of diarrhea based on the syn-dromic surveillance data from enteric clinic in Beijing .Methods：The outpatient data from enteric clinic of a Grade Three General hospital in Haidian district , Beijing from April 1 to Oct.31, 2009 and from May 1 to Nov.10, 2010 were collected, according to the moving average method , the baseline calcula-ted, the value of probability αand μα, the early warning value based on the formula “w=Xj ＋μαSj”calculated and the early warning control charts drew at last .Results：According to the harmfulness , the severity and controllability of diarrheal diseases , the value of probability αwas determined as 0.01, thenμα（ unilateral） as 2, based on the early warning value , the control charts of diarrheal diseases , bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea were established .Conclusion：The enteric clinic requires to fur-ther collect baseline data to evaluate and continuously adjust the established control charts for the best early warning model in accordance with the enteric clinic .