深度老龄化对我国劳动就业的潜在影响

The Potential Impact of Rapid Aging Population on China＇s Labor Employment

对我国就业人口现状,2000-2010年城市、城镇、乡村人口就业速度,我国三大产业就业人口变化及人口年龄组劳动参与率变化的研究表明:若退休年龄不变,2030年我国潜在劳动力将比2010年减少14%;若男女退休年龄分别推迟5年,则2030年潜在劳动力仍将与2010年相当。然而,青年劳动力的比例下降快,农村尤其明显;2020年以后我国劳动力递减速度快,2040年我国60岁以上、65岁以上和80岁以上老年人口比例将超过28%、22%和4%。近20年我国经济发展很快,但面临老龄化的严重挑战,老龄化通过劳动力老化、社会保障、生产成本、商品出口、社会消费、货币汇率等途径,对经济持久地产生影响。

The paper analysed the current national employment, the urban/town/rural employment speed during 2000 -2010, the evolution of the national employment in the three sectors of industry, and the change of age - group labor market participation rate, showing that with the present retirement age, China＇s potential labor force in 2030 will be 14% less than that in 2010; If the retirement age of men and women is delayed respectively by 5 years, the potential labor force in 2030 will still be the same as the one in 2010. The ratio of young labor force, however, will drop faster, especially in the countryside; After 2020, the national labor force will decline faster, In 2040, the proportion of the aged population over 60, 65 and 80 in China will be above 28%, 22% and 4% respectively. The past two decades have seen Chinag fast economic development, but also witnessed the serious challenge from aging, which throw impact on the economic growth by the way of aging labor force, social security, production cost, product exports, social consumption, and currency exchange rate, etc.