基于合作博弈的欧盟财政一体化研究

The Study on Fiscal Policy Integration of EU Based on the Cooperative Game Theory

本文将税收和政府购买因素纳入合作博弈模型,结合最新的塞浦路斯存款税问题,分析在欧盟内部实行财政一体化能否带来大国、小国两个利益集团共赢的结果。研究结果表明:欧盟财政一体化将是一个合作博弈,大国和小国均会从中获益;平衡好大国与欧元区其他国家及小国之间的贸易盈余问题,对于欧盟经济的发展具有促进作用;然而,由于目前欧盟内部大国和小国话语权不一致,小国往往被动接受大国之间协商的结果,双方从合作中获得的收益将大打折扣。

This paper puts the tax and the government purchases into our cooperative game, considering the recent deposit tax problem in Cyprus, and discusses whether fiscal policy integration will make win-win effect to the European Union. The results show that fiscal policy integration is a cooperative game, large country and the small one would get the benefit from it. The trade surplus balance is very important to the connection of each country and has auxo-action for the European Union development. However, asymmetry exists between the large country and the small one, and the small one should accept the agreement of large one, which reduce the benefit for the two.