关于工程进度的风险分析与风险决策的探讨

Research on risk analysis and risk decision-making of progress of engineering construction

利用Bayes推断模型提出了一种非常实用、有效的工程进度的风险分析方法 ,该方法既考虑了决策者的经验和主观判断 ,又考虑了传统的仅以样本推断总体的数理方法 .

Based on the Bayes inference model, an efficient and pragmatic method of risk analysis for the progress of engineering construction is put forward. The method not only takes decision_maker's experiences and subjective judgements into account, but also takes into account the traditional method which infers overall probability distribution only from sample information. Finally, the content of risk decision_making is discussed.