万年县夏季地面最高温度预报方法初探

PERLIMINARY STUDY ON FORECASTING OF THE MAXIMUM SUMMER SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN WANNIAN

利用江西省万年县气象观测站1981—2010年夏季(6—8月)逐日气象观测资料,采用多元统计回归方法,建立了地面最高温度预报模型,并使用1971—1980年夏季逐日观测资料和2013年夏季Meofis统计预报模式输出产品,分别对预报模型进行了检验和试验。结果表明,模型的回算值与实测值具有较好的对应关系,两者决定系数达0.80;模式的预报值与实测值两者变化趋势基本一致,总体平均相对误差和平均绝对误差分别为11.0%和4.9℃。

Based on the 1981-2010 summer observation data in Wannian, a forecasting model of the maximum summer surface temperature was established by using multiple regression method. The 1971-1980 summer daily observation data and the output products of MEOFIS in 2013 were used to test the prediction results respectively. The results show that there is a good corres-ponding relationship between the estimated values and the measured values（r2=0.80）. The predicted values are consistent with the measured values. The average relative error and absolute error of the forecasting tests are 11% and 4.9 ℃, respectively.