经济增长、物价和宏观税负对地税收入增长的影响分析——以佛山市1996~2011年数据为实证

Analysis on the Effects of Economic Growth, Price and Macro Tax Burden on Foshan Local Tax Revenue

采用指数体系方法对1996-2011年期间影响佛山地税收入的经济增长、物价和宏观税负因素进行量化分析。发现物价因素对地税收入的影响为20-30%左右,实际经济增长影响为80-90%,其他因素（征管和政策因素）影响以2003年为分界点呈先正后负特征。金融危机后经济因素对地税增长贡献有所下降,物价因素贡献有所上升,其他因素贡献波动较大。为保持地税收入持续增长,本文提出增加经济总量,调整经济结构、控制物价,以及加强征管等对策建议。

Using the index analysis method, this paper carries on quantative analysis on factors affecting Foshan local tax revenue during 1996-201 l, such as economic growth, price and macro tax burden. On the basis of empirical analysis result, the author provides some suggestions on cultivating the Foshan tax source positively, which include controlling the price, strengthening the appraisal system, dealing with the influence of political-tax cut effectively, and strengthening tax collection and management.