湖北省新型农村社会养老保险制度财政风险评估

Financial Risk Assessment of the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance System in Hubei Province

2009年9月，正式试点实施的新型农村社会养老保险制度首次明确了各级财政补贴政策。制度以县为统筹单位，地方财政补贴规模和相应保障水平很大程度上决定了制度的可持续性。通过引入新农保地方财政补贴力度系数和养老金目标替代率，运用保险精算的方法，结合湖北省13个新型农村社会养老保险试点地区的调研数据，从微观层面对新农保试点的地方财政补贴进行风险识别和评估。结果表明，现行制度设计下，新农保县级财政补贴规模普遍较低，养老金替代率因地区经济水平差异较大，对农村老年人生活保障有限。建议加强地方政府财力，中西部地区建立“省级＋县级”两级财政补贴模式，科学确立养老金保障水平，合理防范各类风险，促进新农保制度的可持续发展。

In September 2009, a formally tentative new type of rural social endowment insurance system defined for the first time the policy of financial subsidies at all levels. The system is based on county, and the scale of local financial subsidies and the corre- sponding insurance level to a large extent determine the sustainability of the system. Through the introduction of the intensity factor of local financial subsidy of new type of rural social endowment insurance and pension target replacement rate, the use of actuarial methods, combining with the research data of 13 new rural social endowment insurance pilot areas in Hubei Province, the paper i- dentifies and assesses the risks of local financial subsidies in the pilot areas from the micro level. The results show that in current system, the scale of financial subsidies at the county level is generally low, the pension replacement rate varies greatly from area to area due to different levels of economic development, and the insurance of the elderly in rural areas is limited. It further suggests to strengthen local government finance, establish a two - level, provincial and county, financial subsidies in central and western re- gions, define scientifically the level of pension, prevent all types of risk with reason, and promote the sustainable development of new type of rural social endowment insurance system.