利用related―UC模型研究中国居民消费平滑性

A Research on Consumption Smoothness of Chinese Residents Based on Related Unobservable Component Model

利用＂Related―UC＂来研究收入―消费关系,以其中消费、总收入和持久收入之间新息的相关性,验证我国居民消费行为更符合哪一种消费行为理论。实证结果说明,凯恩斯主义消费理论、习惯形成理论和预防性储蓄,持久收入假说都不能完美地解释我国居民的消费行为。相对来说,其消费行为更接近于持久收入理论。

In this paper, the related UC model is employed to study the income-consumption relations, in an attempt to applying the relations among consumption, general income and permanent income in the model to verify consumer behavior in China is more in line with what kind of consumer behavior theory. The last empirical results indicate that the Keynesian Theory of Consumption, habit formation theory and precautionary savings, the permanent income hypothesis cannot be perfect to explain the consumption behavior of Chinese residents. Relatively speaking, their consumption behaviors are closer to the permanent income theory.