冰雹灾害承灾个体脆弱性评估研究进展

Review of Research on Vulnerability Assessment of Hail Hazard Bearing Body

脆弱性是灾害学研究的核心科学问题之一,研究雹灾承灾个体脆弱性可为防御雹灾风险提供科学支撑。本文通过梳理脆弱性基本概念,综述了国内外基于测雹板、遥感反演及实验模拟方法对作物、建筑、汽车等主要雹灾承灾体脆弱性评估研究的进展。结果表明,在雹灾承灾个体脆弱性评估中,不同研究在指标选择、研究手段和结果表达形式方面差异较大,但趋于重视机理和定量研究。(1)在降雹数据获取上,对于作物多基于测雹板监测及实验模拟,而建筑及汽车则多采用雷达遥感反演;(2)在致灾强度指标选择上,研究初期指标选择差异较大,后来许多研究将降雹动能作为雹灾强度指标;(3)在脆弱性函数形式上,构建了线性和曲线脆弱性函数,一些研究表明Logistic曲线是预测作物、汽车、建筑等雹灾脆弱性的最佳函数。今后应加强基于脆弱性形成过程的机理模型研究,以期为雹灾风险研究打下基础。

Vulnerability is one of the key scientific problems in disaster research, and the study on vulnerability of hazard-affected body can provide effective support for hail disaster risk prevention. After a review of the basic concepts of vulnerability, the domestic and overseas research progress of vulnerability on the base of hailpad monitoring, remote sensing retrieval and haiifall simulation experiment on crops, buildings and automobiles to hail hazard were summed up. The results showed that the way of data gathering, the indicators of hazard intensity and the fitting function of vulnerability were differently obtained by different scholars in vulnerability assessment, but the research of mechanism and quantification would be appreciated in the future. （ 1 ） In the data acquisition of hail, crops were mainly based on hailpad monitoring and experimental stimulating, while the buildings and cars depended on radar remote sensing inversion. （2）There was a wide variation in the primary indicator selection, afterwards, the kinetic energy was selected to stand for the intensity of hail by many researchers. （3） Some linear and non-linear vulnerability functions had been developed, and the Logistic curve could be chosen as the best function to predict hail disaster vulnerability for crops, automobiles and buildings. On these basis,thus producing the conclusion that the research on a model for vulnerability formation processes to lay the foundation for hail disaster risk study should be strengthened in the future.