摘要
灰色系统模型在贫信息、小样本的非线性系统建模中具有明显优势,适合对时间序列较短时的需水量进行预测。该文针对基本灰色预测模型背景值构造不合理及未充分利用新信息的缺点,采用重构背景值和等维递补原理对基本GM(1,1)模型进行改进,并利用改进模型对惠州市工业需水量进行拟合和预测,结果表明,改进模型预测精度更高,可作为城市需水量预测的一种方法。
Grey system model has obvious advantages in building poor-information and small-sample nonlinear model , which makes it suitable to predict water demand of short time series .However, the model has deficiencies： construction of the basic model＆#39;s background value is unreasonable;new information is not completely used , so this article adopts reconstructing background value and equi-dimensional supplement theory to improve the basic GM （1, 1） grey model, then use the improved model to fit and predict the industrial water demand of HuiZhou city , the result shows that the improved model has higher predicting precision and can be used as one of the tools of predicting the urban water demand .
出处
《广东水利水电》
2014年第2期11-14,共4页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
需水量预测
灰色预测
重构背景值GM(1
1)
等维递补GM(1
1)
prediction of water demand
grey predicting model
reconstruct ground value GM （ 1, 1 ）
equi-dimensional supple-ment GM（1, 1）
