Logistic曲线在网络舆情预测中的应用研究——以“广西镉污染”网络舆情事件为例

Logistic curve in the application of network public opinion prediction research-in "guangxi cadmium pollution" the case of network public opinion

本文先介绍了Logistic曲线的概念和机理,然后在网络舆情传播规律基础上,对"广西镉污染"事件网络舆情发展趋势预测进行研究。建立了该事件的Logistic曲线预测增长模型,详细阐述了该模型的建模、预测过程及其在网络舆情预测中的具体应用,认为这种预测方法在其适用范围内具有较高的预报精度和应用价值,为网络舆情预测提供了一种可行方法。

this paper first introduces the concept of Logistic curve and mechanism, and then on the basis of network public opinion dissemination rule, to ＂guangxi cadmium pollution event＂ network public opinion development trend prediction for research. The event Logistic curve predicted growth model is established, in detail elaborated the process of modeling and forecasting of the model and its specific application in network public opinion prediction, believe that within the scope of this prediction method has high forecast precision and application value, as the network public opinion prediction provides a feasible method.