交通事故对道路通行能力影响的定量综合评估

The Evaluation of Traffic Accidents' Impact on Road Passing Capacity

针对车道被占用对城市道路通行能力的影响,以反映道路通行能力的流率、速度和交通密度为切入点,运用了Excel、Matlab、Eviews等软件,通过建立流率-速度、方差分析、车辆排队、多元线性回归等模型,综合分析交通事故所处横截面实际通行能力的动态变化,同一横截面交通事故所占车道不同对该横截面实际通行能力影响的差异,交通事故所影响的路段车辆排队长度与事故横断面实际通行能力、事故持续时间、路段上游流量间的关系,最后通过交通流模型估算车辆排队长度到达上游路口所需的时间。

By analyzing the impact of urban main road occupation, this article uses three parameter values, flow rate, speed, and density of traffic, as the points of penetration, and builds models of throughput-speed, one-way ANOVA, vehicle queue and multiple linear regression by using software of Excel, Matlab, Eviews and so on. Firstly, based on dynamic varying process of urban main road occupation. The authors analyze the differences between the passing capacity of two different lanes over the same cross section. Then, the paper explores the linear relationship among queuing length caused by traffic accident, passing capacity of the cross section ,incident duration and sections upstream flow. Finally, the traffic flow model is built to estimate the time which a vehicle queuing length uses to reach upstream.