新兴市场国家离岸服务外包政策有效性的实证研究

The Impact of the Policy Validity of Emerging Market Economies on the Development of Offshore Outsourcing

文章引入P.Krugman的三元悖论模型,建立货币政策独立—汇率稳定—金融市场开放的框架,采用新兴市场国家14国面板数据分析宏观经济政策的选择对离岸服务外包发展的影响,结论如下:(1)总体新兴市场国家的独立货币政策对离岸服务外包收入额增长及波动性均无显著影响,但是亚洲新兴市场国家该指标影响显著为正;(2)浮动汇率制对离岸服务外包收入额增长有积极影响,但同时也增加了收入额异常波动性;(3)资本完全流动对新兴市场国家的离岸服务外包收入额增长没有影响或有负面影响,且会引发收入额的异常波动性;(4)中国维持独立货币政策,同时稳健实施浮动汇率制和逐步开放资本流动,将对离岸服务外包收入额增长产生极大的促进作用。

Rare literatures have paid close attention to the impact of macroeconomic policy decisions on the development of offshore outsourcing. This paper introduces the trilemma model, and constructs the framework of monetary independence, exchange stability and financial market openness to analyze the impact of emerging market economies＇ policy choices on the development of offshore outsourcing by using the panel data from 14 emerging market countries. It finds that （1） monetary independence has no significant impact on both offshore outsourcing and its volatility in the total emerging market economies （EMEs）, but the effect is significantly positive in the Asian EMEs; （2） floating exchange rate regime has a positive impact on the development and volatility of offshore outsourcing; （3） complete capital mobility has no significant or a negative impact on the revenue growth of offshore outsourcing, but it may trigger the abnormal volatility of the revenue; （4） the maintaining of monetary independence, the steady execution of a floating exchange rate system and the gradual opening-up of capital mobility will drastically increase the growth of China＇ offshore outsourcing revenues.