中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价

Modeling the Investment of Coal-fired Power Plant Retrofit with CCS and Subsidy Policy Assessment

在应对气候变化的背景下,是否对已经投入运营的燃煤电厂进行改造,加装碳捕获与封存技术(CCS),是一个重要的低碳投资决策问题。本文针对已投入运营的燃煤电厂进行CCS改造的投资决策问题,从成本节约的角度出发,综合考虑CCS面临的诸多不确定因素,将序贯投资决策的实物期权方法与Monte-Carlo模拟相结合,建立了基于偏均衡分析的CCS投资评价模型,研究电力企业投资CCS技术改造现有火电可以带来的成本节约收益价值和温室气体减排量,结合案例,论述了燃煤电厂投资CCS改造的期权价值和投资风险。并应用该模型分析了补贴政策对CCS投资行为的影响。模拟计算结果显示:在现有参考碳价格水平下,基准燃煤电厂投资改造CCS的风险很大,CCS改造投资被放弃的比例接近35%,可见现有的技术水平和政策框架不足以促进企业对现有燃煤电厂进行CCS改造投资。对比政府补贴投资和补贴发电两种政策的效果,在总预算补贴额度较小时,政府补贴企业的研发投入效果要优于直接补贴发电的效果。从评价结果看:首先,在CCS技术发展初期,我国政府应该侧重鼓励大型电力企业对CCS技术的消化学习,通过补贴研发投入,降低技术使用成本,为CCS技术未来的大规模采用打下基础。其次,一个较为有效的碳排放交易机制的构建,可以在长期促进国内电厂对CCS进行改造投资。

Under the background of climate change, whether to retrofit existing coal-fired power plant with Carbon Capture and Storage （CCS） technology is an important low-carbon investment decision. This paper studies the investment decision of existing coal-fired power plant retrofit with CCS technology. From the perspective of cost saving, we integrate sequential investment process and Monte- Carlo simulation to establish a CCS investment evaluation model based on partial equilibrium analysis. The model can calculate the cost saving value and greenhouse gas emission reduction amount resulted from power generation enterprise investing CCS technology to retrofit existing plant. Based on case study, we have discussed the option value and investment risk of coal-fired plant retrofit with CCS technology. And we have also studied the impacts of government＇s subsidy policies on CCS retrofitting. The simulation results show that, given reference carbon price level, the investment risk of CCS retrofit is high, the percentage of paths that CCS retrofit have been abandoned is near 35% ; this shows that current technology level and policy framework cannot support the CCS retrofit effectively. Then the paper compares the effect of CCS generation and government R＆D subsidy. The results show that, if the total budget of government subsidy is low, putting the subsidy into CCS R＆D process can have better effect in promoting CCS development than that of putting into CCS generation process. So, in the early development of CCS technology, our government should focus on promoting CCS technology learning among large power generation enterprises, to reduce the cost of CCS adoption by subsidizing enterprises＇ R＆D input, and then it can lay the foundation for the future large-scale development of CCS in the future. In the long-term, establishing an effective emissions trading scheme can further promote domestic plants to invest in CCS retrofiting. The model and the calculation results can provide useful information in CCS investment evaluation and emission reduction policy design.