中国风电产业供需环境分析与发展预测

Analysis on Supply and Demand Environment of China's Wind Power Industry and Its Development Forecasting

本文利用波特五力模型对中国风电产业所处竞争环境进行分析,认为中国风电产业内部竞争激烈,外来威胁不明显,替代品威胁力较弱,产业链上游核心零部件生产呈现"技术空心化"。通过对"风电零部件供给-风电整机制造-风电场运营开发"整个风电供需链的分析,认为现阶段制约我国风电产业持续发展的最大障碍,并不在于风电的制造、生产和运营,而是受制于风电并网的约束。为进一步研究未来我国风电市场的发展趋势,本文基于预测效果优于BP神经网络的STA-LSSVM模型,利用1993-2011年中国风电装机新增容量、累计容量及风电并网新增容量、并网累计容量等数据,预测了风电生产供给与风电并网需求的发展趋势。结果显示,2012-2015年我国风电装机容量增长率逐年上升趋势明显,而风电并网容量增长率则趋于平缓。预计到2014年风电累计并网容量缺口将达到4 817.03 MW,需求缺口将愈来愈大,风电消纳远远滞后于风电生产,风电产能"相对过剩"的局面将更加严重。鉴于此,本文在政策层面上给出如下建议:(1)进一步加强国家电网建设。要有重点、分步骤地建设偏远地区电网设施,并建立更大区域的电力市场,在区域电网内甚至在区域电网外寻找风电消纳市场;(2)创新风电并网技术及应用。政府应积极支持风电开发和并入电网所需要的输电投资;(3)加强风电项目风险控制。国家电力监管部门要重视风电场与电网的相互影响,加强监管力度;(4)创新风电利用方式。通过开发供热、农业提水灌溉等灵活用电负荷,促进风电就地消纳和利用。

Through analysis of the competitive environment of China＇ s wind power industry by Porter＇ s five forces model, this paper points out that its internal competition is intense, external threats are unobvious, alternatives are weak, and its core component production in the upstream of industrial chain shows the feature of ＂hollowing-out on technology＂. By analyzing the whole supply chain of wind power industry- the supply of wind power components, wind turbines manufacturing, and wind farm operation, this paper suggests that the main bottleneck of sustainable development of wind power industry at present is not the manufacturing, production or operation, but the poor grid-connection. Using the data of China＇ s new and cumulative installed capacities of wind power and its corresponding grid-connection during 1993 -2011, this paper forecasts the growth trends of China＇ s wind power production and its grid-connection by STA-LSSVM model, which predicts more precisely than BP neural network. Results show that from 2012 - 2015, the growth rate of China＇ s installed capacities of wind power increases year by year obviously, while the growth rate of grid-connected capacities increases gently. A gap between the two above would become larger, even reach to 4 817.03 MW by 2014. The development of grid-connected wind power lags far behind the production of wind power, so the ＂relative excess capacity＂ situation of China＇ s wind power industry would get increasingly worse. Therefore, this paper suggests on the policies as follows： （1）further strengthening the national power grid construction. Constructing the power grid facilities in undeveloped areas step by step, and establishing more effective regional electricity market, even looking for electricity market inside and outside the regional grids; （2）innovating the wind power technologies and applications. Goverments should actively support wind power development and investments in required transmission grids ; （3）strengthening risk control of wind power projects. State Electricity Regulatory Authorities should pay attention to the interaction between wind farms and the grids by enhancing the supervision; （~ innovating the using patterns of wind power. Promoting local consumption and wind power utilization by development of heating, water pumping for irrigation and other flexible power utility manners.