中国人力资本总效应被低估了吗?

Is the Total Effect of Human Capital in China Underestimated?

人力资本对经济增长的作用机制包括产出效应、创新效应、吸收效应和互补效应,绝大多数文献对各类效应的存在性进行了检验,但是由于各自研究视角过于片面,导致许多截然相反的结论无从评判,若能建立一个融合性的实证框架,以进一步验证以往结论的可靠性,将有利于我们准确把握人力资本在中国经济运行中的作用。本文借鉴Benhabib和Spiegel(2005)和MRW(1992)增长回归框架,将新古典、新增长以及Nelson-Phelps技术追赶理论融合在一个实证模型中,利用中国1990-2011年分省份面板数据,运用FGLS估计方法检验人力资本各类效应的存在性,以准确评判人力资本在中国经济增长中的贡献地位,并通过考察人力资本各效应的空间差异,间接回答人力资本对地区差距变化的影响。实证结果显示:人力资本总效应显著为正,其中,人力资本互补效应最大、创新效应与产出效应次之,但对国内外技术溢出的吸收效应显著为负,说明如果没有全面考察人力资本对经济增长的影响机制,那么人力资本总效应将会被低估,但由于吸收效应的负面影响,被低估的程度没有达到理论预期。此外,非东部各类人力资本效应对经济增长的发挥程度明显高于东部地区。为此我们提出应实施"以技术调整人力资本"赶超战略,以提升人力资本在经济增长中的贡献地位。

The human capital affects the economic growth in four aspects which include the output effect, the innovation effect, the absorption effect and the complementary effect. There are a lot of researches focusing on the existing of different effects, but the results are totally opposite because of their inadequacy views. We need construct a complete empirical framework to verify the reliability of previous conclusions, which will be conducive for us to accurately grasp how the human capital affects the economic growth in China. Based on the growth regression framework from Benhabib and Spiegel （ 2005 ） and MRW （ 1992 ）, this paper puts the Neoclassical theory, New growth theory and Nelson-Phelps＇ technological catch-up theory into an empirical model, and tests all kinds of human capital effects by FGLS estimation method, within the Chinese provinces panel data from 1990 -2011, in order to accurately judge the important role of human capital in China＇ s economic growth. Through the investigation of the spatial differences of human capital effect, this paper analyzes the influence of human capital on the regional disparities. The results tell us the total human capital effect is significantly positive. The complementary effect of human capital is the most significantly positive and the second significantly positive effect is the innovation effect and the output effect. But the absorption effect on domestic and international technology spillover effect is significantly negative, which illustrates that the total human capital effect will be underestimated, if all kinds of action mechanism of human capital on economic growth have not been fully considered. But due to the negative impact of the absorption effect, the underestimated degree is not reached theoretical expectation. In addition, all kinds of human capital effects in the central, western and northeast areas are significantly higher than that of the eastern areas. So we put forward to carry out the catching-up strategy called ＂Adjusting Human Capital Based on Technology＂, which will enhance the contribution of human capital on the economic growth.