人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国就业的影响——基于不同层面的实证分析

Affects of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Employment in China——An empirical analysis based on different levels

作为开放经济的核心变量之一,汇率在一国国民经济和对外经济关系中具有举足轻重的作用,它可以通过对外贸易和外商直接投资等渠道对一国就业产生影响。利用1995-2010年我国总体情况,以及16个行业和29个省市的年度数据,采用不同模型就人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国不同层面就业的影响进行的实证分析表明,人民币实际有效汇率上升,无论是对我国就业总量,还是对行业就业或者省市就业的影响都是负向的,即人民币实际有效汇率升值不利于我国各个层面的就业。

As one of the core variables of open economy, exchange rate plays a decisive role in a country＇s national economy and the foreign economic relationship as well. Exchange rate can affect employment through trade and FDI. Based on the annual data （1995--2010） concerning with 16 sectors and 29 provinces in China, an empirical analysis is made herein with different models about the impacts of RMB real effective exchange rate on employment at different levels. The results show that appreciation of real effective exchange rate has a negative impact on both total employment and employment in all industries and provinces, namely RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation is not conducive to the employment in China at all levels.