我国劳动报酬提高对宏观经济影响的实证分析——基于1981年-2012年的宏观经济数据

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Increased Laborers' Wages on Macro-Economy

本文采用1981年-2012年人均货币工资、国内生产总值、消费总额、固定资产投资总额、出口总额、实际利用外资总额、企业盈余总额、就业总人数等相关宏观经济指标,实证研究我国劳动报酬提高对宏观经济的影响。结果表明,我国消费对劳动报酬的弹性远大于投资和出口对劳动报酬的弹性,劳动报酬提高带来的对经济增长的消费需求拉动效应大于投资和出口的下降效应:劳动报酬的提高尚未对就业、利用外资和企业盈余等产生明显的负面影响。因此,目前适度提高劳动报酬从总体上有利于宏观经济的发展。

This paper is an empirical study on the impact of raising laborer's wages on macro-economy based on relevant macro indexes from 1981-2012:the average monetary income,GDP,total consumption,total investment on fixed assets,total export,the actual amount of foreign capital utilization,enterprise profit and total employment,etc.The result shows that for quite some time in China,the consumption based elasticity is greater than the investment and export based elasticity with regard to laborers' wages.The effect of raising laborers' wages on the increase of consumption demands in economic growth is greater than the effect of investment and export decline.Raising laborers' wages does not show any negative impact on employment,foreign capital utilization and enterprise profit.Therefore,moderate increase of laborers' wages is helpful for overall macro-economic development.