摘要
During the early part of the 21 st century,Chinese academic circles made judgments and forecasts about U.S.war aims in Afghanistan and the Middle East,the possible process of the wars,and outcomes of postwar reconstruction.After the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan on October 7,2001,and its military invasion of Iraq on March 20,2003,these big events were analyzed in the context of the international politics of the time.Since these two conflicts are coming to a conclusion,at least in their direct military scope,it is time to look back upon the forecasting framework to see whether alterations and improvements can be made.On December 18,2011,all American combat troops pulled out of Iraq,and the end is in sight for U.S.withdrawal from Afghanistan—either in December 2014,or thereafter.
After analyzing more than 400 articles about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the author indicates that a "collective blindness" was inherent in predictions among Chinese academics. Without solid national and field research by qualified researchers using proper methodology, any analysis of a country's long-term strategy "can only be a castle in the air". The situation should be remedied in the future to avoid allowing bias to filter out logical conclusions.
