中亚五国能源产业发展及其对区域经济的影响

Development of energy industry and its impact on regional economy in the Central Asia

基于1993-2010年能源数据,探讨了中亚地区的能源产业发展情况及各国的能源生产与消费差异。研究表明:(1)中亚五国的能源产量先降后升,2010年能源总产量达2.61×108t,98%以上产于哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦,原油、煤炭总产量一直呈增长趋势,天然气总产量变化不大。(2)能源产品消费量随生产量的变化先降后升,2010年能源消费总量为1.45×108t,哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦的能源消费量和人均能源消费量远高于吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦,能源资源丰富的国家能源利用效率相对较低。(3)近年来中亚五国的能源净出口量大幅增加,2010年能源净出口总量为1.16×108t,1998年以后哈萨克斯坦取代土库曼斯坦成为中亚地区的主要能源出口国,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的天然气、原油和煤炭等能源需求则主要依靠进口。(4)经济发展对能源产业的依赖较强,哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦丰富的能矿资源成为国家经济发展的主要增长点,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦能源矿产资源较为缺乏,导致经济总量较低、经济发展速度相对较慢。

Based on energy data during 1993-2010,the development of energy industry and difference of energy production and consumption in Central Asia were analyzed. The results show as follows：（1） The yield of energy production decreased during 1990s and then increased to 26 088×10^4 t in 2010. More than 98% of energy was produced in Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The yield of oil and coal grows continually while gas production changed little. （2） Energy consumption first decreased and then increased withenergy production variation,which reached to 14 533×10^4 t in 2010. The total and per capita energy consumption of Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan were much higher,but the energy use efficiency was lower. （3） Net energy exports of Central Asia increased significantly from 5 186×10^4 t of 1993 to 11 554×10^4 t of 2010. Kazakhstan replaced Turkmenistan to become the major energy-exporting country of Central Asia after 1998. The energy consumption in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan was mainly relied on imports. （4） Economic development depends on the development of energy industry. The abundant energy and mineral resources became a major growth point for economic development in Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan,while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan showed a lower economic growth.