分析中国未来农业发展的各影响因素的权重

Analysis of the Weight of China's Future Agricultural Development Factors

为研究制约中国未来农业发展的各因素问题,依据我国未来农业的发展总体目标,按层次分解问题,构成一个由下而上递阶层次的结构,建立了层次分析模型,得出各因素所占权重大小,进而得到仍有2亿人口的粮食不能自给对我国未来农业发展影响最大,其次是缺水,地少,再次是农村贫困人口生活问题、农转非,城市化建设在这四个之中影响最小的结论,解决或改善农村农业的这些问题,进而加快我国农业的发展。

Aiming at the factors restricting the agricultural development and according to the overall goals, we decomposed the problems according to the hierarchies and set up a model to analysis the weights of all factors, thus we summaries the conclusion that there still 200 million people can ＇t be self-sufficient has the biggest problem, then the lacking of water, plant and the living problems of the poor, urbanizing and the urban construction have the least effects.